HISTORICAL IMPACTS GUIDE
Analyze how economic events move markets with historical data
What is Historical Impacts?
Historical Impacts is a powerful analytics tool that shows you exactly how economic events have historically moved different assets. By analyzing years of data, it reveals which events cause the biggest price moves, volatility spikes, and directional biases for forex pairs and cryptocurrencies. Use this data to prepare for upcoming events and understand market reactions.
INFO
Two Analysis Views
The Impacts page offers two complementary perspectives on event-asset relationships.
See all economic events ranked by their historical impact on a specific asset. Perfect for traders who focus on specific pairs (like EUR/USD or BTC) and want to know which events matter most for their trades.
See how a specific event type (like NFP or CPI) impacts different assets. Perfect for event traders who want to find the most reactive assets to trade around specific announcements.
VIEW TABS
Switch between analysis modes
Understanding the Metrics
Each impact analysis includes several key metrics to help you understand market behavior.
5MIN AVG
Average absolute return in the 5 minutes following the event release. Shows immediate market reaction and is useful for scalpers and news traders.
60MIN AVG
Average absolute return in the 60 minutes following the event. Captures the full initial reaction including any reversals or follow-through.
1DAY AVG
Average absolute return over the full trading day. Shows whether the event sets the tone for extended moves.
VOL_SPIKE
Volatility spike multiplier compared to normal conditions. A 3x spike means volatility was 3 times higher than usual. Critical for position sizing.
MAX_EXCURSION
Average maximum move (either direction) during the event window. Shows how far price traveled at its peak, useful for stop placement.
SIG_MOVE %
Percentage of events that caused a "significant" move (>0.5% for forex, >2% for crypto). Helps identify events that consistently deliver tradeable volatility.
DIR_ACC
Directional accuracy - percentage of times price direction matched expectations based on data surprise. Higher accuracy means more predictable reactions.
Reading Asset Cards
Each asset card in the "By Asset" view shows comprehensive impact statistics. The header displays the asset symbol with color coding (cyan for forex, orange for crypto) and total events analyzed. The return stats grid shows 5-minute, 60-minute, and 1-day average absolute returns with color-coded intensity. The direction bias bar shows the historical up/down split, revealing any directional tendency. Footer stats include volatility spike, max move, and directional accuracy.
ASSET CARD EXAMPLE
EUR/USD impact profile
Reading the Event Table
The "By Event Type" table lists all economic events ranked by their average 60-minute impact. Each row shows the event name, country flag, number of historical occurrences analyzed, time-based returns (5m, 60m, 1d), volatility spike multiplier, and significant move rate. Click any row to drill down into which assets are most affected by that specific event.
EVENT TABLE EXAMPLE
Top impactful events
| Event | 5M | 60M | VOL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 Non-Farm Payrolls | 0.45% | 0.72% | 4.2x |
| 🇺🇸 CPI YoY | 0.32% | 0.58% | 3.1x |
| 🇺🇸 Fed Rate Decision | 0.28% | 0.45% | 2.8x |
Filtering and Sorting
Use filters to focus your analysis on the most relevant data.
ASSET TYPE FILTER
Filter by asset type: ALL shows everything, FOREX shows only currency pairs, CRYPTO shows Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies. This helps compare event sensitivity across asset classes.
SORTING OPTIONS
Sort options let you rank assets by different metrics: 60-minute return (default for balanced view), 5-minute return (for immediate reaction), 1-day return (for extended moves), or volatility spike (for risk assessment).
FILTER CONTROLS
Available filter options
Detail Modals
Click any asset card or event row to open detailed breakdowns.
ASSET DETAIL
Asset detail modal shows all events that impact the selected asset, ranked by magnitude. See which economic releases move your favorite pair the most and how consistently they deliver significant moves.
EVENT DETAIL
Event detail modal shows all assets impacted by the selected event. Compare how the same NFP release affects EUR/USD vs GBP/USD vs BTC. Find the most reactive asset to trade for each event.
TIP
Color Coding System
Colors help you quickly identify impact magnitude and volatility levels.
RETURN MAGNITUDE
VOLATILITY SPIKE
Trading with Impact Data
Use historical impact data to prepare for upcoming events.
Check the impact profile before any major event to set realistic expectations
Use VOL_SPIKE to adjust position size - higher spikes need smaller positions
Review MAX_EXCURSION for stop loss placement - place stops beyond typical event moves
High SIG_MOVE % events are prime candidates for straddle or breakout strategies
Compare 5m vs 60m returns to understand if reactions extend or reverse
Use DIR_ACC to assess if trading the surprise direction is historically profitable
For high-impact events, consider waiting for the 5-minute dust to settle before entering
Cross-reference with upcoming calendar events to identify tradeable setups
Assets with high 1-day returns are good for swing trades around events
Use event-asset details to find the most reactive pair for each event type
WARNING
Frequently Asked Questions
How much historical data is analyzed?
We analyze several years of historical event data with price reactions for major forex pairs and cryptocurrencies. The "events count" shows exactly how many instances were analyzed for each asset-event combination.
What is "absolute return"?
Absolute return ignores direction and measures the magnitude of the move. A +0.5% move and -0.5% move both count as 0.5% absolute return. This is important because we care about volatility opportunity, not just direction.
Why do crypto moves look larger than forex?
Cryptocurrencies are inherently more volatile than major forex pairs. A 0.5% move on EUR/USD is significant, while BTC might move 2-3% on the same event. The impact colors are calibrated differently for each asset class.
How do I use this for upcoming events?
Before an event like NFP, check its historical impact profile. See which assets react most, how long moves typically last, and whether reactions are directionally consistent. Then use this data to select assets and size positions appropriately.
What counts as a "significant move"?
Significant move thresholds vary by asset type: typically >0.5% for major forex pairs and >2% for cryptocurrencies. The SIG_MOVE % shows what percentage of events crossed this threshold historically.
Should I trade every high-impact event?
Not necessarily. High impact means high volatility, which increases both opportunity and risk. Focus on events where you have an edge in interpreting the data or where directional accuracy is historically high.
Pro Tips
Compare the same event across different countries - US CPI vs UK CPI impact profiles differ significantly
Look for events with high 5m returns but lower 60m returns - these often reverse quickly
Events with high DIR_ACC above 60% are candidates for directional trading strategies
Use the direction bias bar to identify structural tendencies (e.g., some pairs consistently spike up on specific data)
Cross-reference impact data with the economic calendar for complete event preparation
Note which events have low SIG_MOVE % - you can potentially hold through these with normal stops
The most impactful events change over time - Fed decisions matter more during rate cycles
Consider avoiding trading during extreme volatility spikes (>4x) unless highly experienced
Use event detail modal to find arbitrage opportunities - some assets overreact vs others
Build a personal watchlist of events that consistently deliver your preferred trading conditions
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Next: Economic Calendar Guide
Learn how to track upcoming events and prepare for market-moving announcements
Read Guide →